Objective: To forecast the future trend of betel nut-associated oral cancer and the resulting burden on health based on historical oral cancer patient data in Hunan province, China.
Methods: Oral cancer patient data in five hospitals in Changsha (the capital city of Hunan province) were collected for the past 12 years. Three methods were used to analyse the data; Microsoft Excel Forecast Sheet, Excel Trendline, and the Logistic growth model. A combination of these three methods was used to forecast the future trend of betel nut-associated oral cancer and the resulting burden on health.
Results: Betel nut-associated oral cancer cases have been increasing rapidly in the past 12 years in Changsha. As of 2016, betel nuts had caused 8,222 cases of oral cancer in Changsha and close to 25,000 cases in Hunan, resulting in about ¥5 billion in accumulated financial loss. The combined trend analysis predicts that by 2030, betel nuts will cause more than 100,000 cases of oral cancer in Changsha and more than 300,000 cases in Hunan, and more than ¥64 billion in accumulated financial loss in medical expenses.
Conclusion: The trend analysis of oral cancer patient data predicts that the growing betel nut industry in Hunan province will cause a humanitarian catastrophe with massive loss of human life and national resources. To prevent this catastrophe, China should ban betel nuts and provide early oral cancer screening for betel nut consumers as soon as possible.